1
The Formula
The Chance Score is a proprietary algorithm that combines three key factors to rank deals by their likelihood of closing successfully. Each component is weighted to reflect its importance in the sales process.
The deal's current stage in the sales pipeline is the strongest indicator of success. Higher stages reflect more progress and greater commitment from the prospect.
Appointment/Demo Scheduled
20% (0.20)
Qualified to buy
50% (0.50)
Decision Maker Bought-In
70% (0.70)
LoI / Handshake
90% (0.90)
Your sales team's priority assessment adds critical human insight. High-priority deals receive focused attention and resources.
Urgency matters! Deals with near-term close dates require immediate attention and are more likely to close within the forecast period.
Example Calculation
Let's calculate the Chance Score for a real deal:
Deal: "Stiles (USA) Machine 2"
Stage: Decision Maker Bought-In (70%)
Priority: High
Close Date: 22 days away
Step 1: Stage Probability
Decision Maker Bought-In = 0.70
0.70 × 40% = 0.28 (28%)
Step 2: Priority Weight
High Priority = 1.00
1.00 × 30% = 0.30 (30%)
Step 3: Date Proximity
22 days (0-30 range) = 1.00
1.00 × 30% = 0.30 (30%)
Step 4: Total Chance Score
0.28 + 0.30 + 0.30 = 0.88
Final Chance Score: 88% (High Chance)
2
Score Interpretation
| Score Range |
Badge |
Meaning |
| 70-100% |
High Chance |
Strong indicators across all factors. Focus your energy here! |
| 40-69% |
Medium Chance |
Good potential but needs attention. Follow up actively. |
| 0-39% |
Low Chance |
Early stage or lower priority. Nurture carefully. |
Pro Tips for Using Chance Score
- Focus on High Chance deals (70%+) – These have the best combination of stage progress, priority, and urgency
- Medium Chance deals (40-69%) need active follow-up to move them up
- Low Chance deals (0-39%) require nurturing but shouldn't consume most of your time
- Sort by Chance Score to quickly identify your hottest opportunities
- Update Priority and Stage regularly to keep scores accurate
- Watch Date Proximity – deals closing soon automatically score higher